Eighteen of the top 20 WTA players in the world converge in the Italian capital of Rome for the 2024 Internazionali BNL d’Italia, a WTA 1000 event.
Defending champion Elena Rybakina is expected to defend her title when the main draw begins Tuesday, May 7, and runs through the 18th.
Join me as I preview the WTA side of this event, offer some free first-round WTA picks, and more for the 2024 Internazionali BNL d’Italia WTA 1000.
Swiatek, Sabalenka, and everyone else
After what we just witnessed in Madrid, World No. 1 Iga Swiatek and World No. 2 Aryna Sabalenka must be the two favorites to win Rome.
Saturday’s Madrid Open finale was an unreal display that Swiatek had to feel fortunate to win. It was also the closest of their 10 clashes: Swiatek improved to 7-3 lifetime over her Belarussian nemesis, including victories in three of their previous four meetings.
Swiatek dropped only two sets during her Madrid title run. Sabalenka gave her all she could handle and more on Saturday, and the Pole had to reach deep in her bag, find the much-needed break at 2-3 with a fight to the finish to stave off her rival.
Top Half Breakdown
Swiatek terrific draw
As for her chances in Rome, the World No. 1 is in the same quarters as struggling Marketa Vondrousova and could see a resurging Sloane Stephens in the third round, Veronika Kudermetova in round four, and potentially Madison Keys, Vondrousova, or Beatriz Haddad Maia in the quarters and maybe Coco Gauff in the semis.
Interesting sleepers in Swiatek’s section include;
- Sloane Stephens: has the best record on clay (9-2) with a WTA 250 title (Rouen).
- Yulia Putintseva: 4-1 on the dirt and reached the quarters in Madrid.
- Madison Keys: She made a nice run to the Madrid semis and is 4-2 on clay.
- Marketa Voundrousova: The former French Open finalist is 4-2 on the dirt.
Gauff looks to get back on track
Gauff has a great opportunity to reach her second career semi in Rome. The American has played only five matches on dirt but wasn’t impressive in any of them. She has a straight shot into the fourth round, where she could meet either rising star Mirra Andreeva or Liudmilla Samsonova, and then a potential quarterfinal matchup with China’s Qinwen Zheng, Daria Kasatkina, or Naomi Osaka.
Interesting sleepers in Gauff’s section include;
- Qinwen Zheng: Formidable on clay but 1-2 on the dirt.
- Mirra Andreeva: the teen sensation is 6-2 with two quarterfinal appearances on clay.
- Daria Kasatkina: 6-2 on the dirt and Charleston finalist
Bottom Half Breakdown
Bottom half nightmare for Rybakina
Rybakina is one of the best on the dirt, but her draw is difficult; she could open against a tricky opponent in Irena-Camelia Begu and might see Danielle Collins or Maria Sakkari in the quarters.
Sakkari has a tough ask to get through this quarter. She could meet Anehelina Kalinina as soon as the third round or either a pair of tough customers in Jasmine Paolina or Viktoria Azarenka in the fourth round.
Interesting sleepers in Rybakina’s section includes;
- Anhelina Kalinina: She’s 4-3 on clay and reached the semis in Rouen with a nice draw.
- Jasmine Paolini: The No. 1 Italian is 4-2 on the dirt and will have the crowd on her side.
- Danielle Collins: Collins is 7-1 on clay with a title in Charleston and semi in Madrid.
Sabalenka tough draw
Clay hasn’t always been kind to the big-serving Belarussian, but she’s 17-3 during the past year on the dirt and did win Madrid in 2023.
While her improving results on the dirt are encouraging, most of her success has come on faster-playing clay, and the high altitude of Madrid certainly benefitted her booming serve.
She’ll win matches in Rome but has a potentially difficult third-round matchup with Ukrainian Dayana Yastremska (3-0 lifetime over Sabalenka), and the fourth round could feature another Ukrainian in Elina Svitolina with potentially Ons Jabuer or Jelena Ostapenko in the quarters.
Interesting sleepers Sabalenka’s section includes;
- Elina Svitolina: She’s a two-time winner here (2017, 2019) with six career WTA Tour clay-court titles.
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